Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome (Italy), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Referee: Franke A. (Ger)


	Sebastian Baez		Dusan Lajovic

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.65	2.25	Watch
	1.63	2.42
	1.68	2.34
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.64	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.66)	2.33 ↑ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
59%

Dusan Lajovic
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

42.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Dusan Lajovic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dusan Lajovic than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Sebastian Baez - Dusan Lajovic Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). Lajovic will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lajovic: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Lajovic is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lajovic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Baez will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Baez won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Madrid
28.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
26.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Dominik Koepfer - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LWLLL
- Dusan Lajovic
ATP Roma
09.05.24	Dusan Lajovic - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.24	Dusan Lajovic - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
20.04.24	Stefanos Tsitsipas - Dusan Lajovic	2:1 ✺
19.04.24	Arthur Fils - Dusan Lajovic	1:2 ✺
18.04.24	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Dusan Lajovic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.23	Dusan Lajovic - Sebastian Baez	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
23.05.22	Dusan Lajovic - Sebastian Baez	1:3

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