Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday


	Sebastian Baez		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.29	3.3
	1.33	3.51
	1.28	3.51	Watch
	1.3	3.4	Watch
	1.29	3.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 (1.3)	3.4 ↑ (3.3)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
72.4%

Roberto Carballes Baena
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.7%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Roberto Carballes Baena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4 Games - Baez (1.79) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 65. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 199.

Recent form of Baez has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Carballes Baena has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Baez is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baez won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.26	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LWLLL
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Munich
11.04.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Alex Molcan	Carballes Baena R. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Rei Sakamoto - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Jonas Forejtek - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Felipe Virgili Berini - Roberto Carballes Baena	0:2 ✺
24.03.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Vilius Gaubas	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 ?LLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Geneva
22.05.24	Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0
ATP Kitzbuhel
02.08.23	Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0

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