Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montreal, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 4 August 2026, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1


	Sebastian Baez		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.78	2.00
	1.7	2.1	Watch
	1.86	2.04
	1.85	1.96	Watch
	1.76	2.06	Watch
	1.74	2.12	Watch
	1.75	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2)	2.04 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
53.4%

Mattia Bellucci
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Baez's performance.

Mattia Bellucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mattia Bellucci might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mattia Bellucci could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	0%	56.2%

Sebastian Baez - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Bellucci will win (votes: 9 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bellucci: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bellucci (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 53. Bellucci is ranked ATP: 81.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Baez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Mattia Bellucci - the odds 1.8 are the expected chance of winning is 52.63%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Kitzbuhel
23.07.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Sebastian Baez - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Sebastian Baez - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:1 ✺
ATP Bastad
17.07.26	Andrey Rublev - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
16.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWLW
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Wimbledon
01.07.26	Mattia Bellucci - Zachary Svajda	Canceled ✺
Exhibition Boodles Challenge Men
25.06.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Mattia Bellucci	1:2 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
23.06.26	Ugo Humbert - Mattia Bellucci	2:1 ✺
ATP Halle
18.06.26	Raphael Collignon - Mattia Bellucci	2:1 ✺
16.06.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alexander Bublik	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 ?WLLW

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