Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday


	Learner Tien		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.30	3.40
	1.3	3.55	Watch
	1.33	3.67
	1.31	3.44	Watch
	1.32	3.5
	1.34	3.57	Watch
	1.31	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.4)	3.53 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Learner Tien
72.9%

Sebastian Baez
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.5%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Learner Tien has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Learner Tien's performance.

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Learner Tien than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Learner Tien that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Learner Tien - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Tien will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Baez will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tien is ranked ATP: 12. Baez is ranked ATP: 53.

Tien is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Baez has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tien may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tien is a strong favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Learner Tien - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.53%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Learner Tien
ATP Montreal
12.08.26	Learner Tien - Ben Shelton	0:2 ✺
11.08.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Learner Tien	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Learner Tien - Thiago Augustin Tirante	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Learner Tien - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
05.08.26	Learner Tien - Gael Monfils	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWW
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Cincinnati
14.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Grigor Dimitrov	2:1 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Zizou Bergs - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
04.08.26	Sebastian Baez - Mattia Bellucci	2:0 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
23.07.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
22.07.26	Sebastian Baez - Arthur Rinderknech	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWLW

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