Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 26 April 2024, Friday

Referee: Campistol J. (Esp)


	Sebastian Baez		Luca Van Assche

	1	2
	1.4	3	Watch
	1.44	2.75
	1.42	2.9	Watch
	1.45	2.95
	1.45	2.98
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.43	2.86	Watch
	1.42	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.37)	2.9 ↓ (3.13)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
66.9%

Luca Van Assche
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.9%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Luca Van Assche has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Van Assche than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Sebastian Baez - Luca Van Assche Predictions

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Van Assche is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Van Assche could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Baez will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Barcelona
16.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Dominik Koepfer - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Fabio Fognini - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Luca Van Assche
ATP Madrid
24.04.24	Luca Van Assche - Zizou Bergs	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
17.04.24	Fabian Marozsan - Luca Van Assche	van Assche L. retired ✺
16.04.24	Luca Van Assche - Zhizhen Zhang	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.24	Daniel Altmaier - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
ATP Marrakech
01.04.24	Luca Van Assche - Jaume Munar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 W?WLL

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