Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Referee: Gabas A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3


	Sebastian Baez		Taylor Harry Fritz

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.55	1.5
	2.45	1.55
	2.5	1.59
	2.54	1.59
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.53	1.53	Watch
	2.48	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↓ (2.74)	1.55 ↑ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
38.4%

Taylor Harry Fritz
61.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.5%

65.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

67.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Taylor Harry Fritz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taylor Harry Fritz than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Taylor Harry Fritz could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.3%	0%	57.7%

Sebastian Baez - Taylor Harry Fritz Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 11 - 42.3%). Fritz will win (votes: 15 - 57.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fritz: 38.7% – 76.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Baez is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Fritz is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Fritz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fritz will have a poor advantage in this game.

Our prediction for today's Fritz to win the game is with odds 1.63.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Baez won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 0-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Luca Van Assche	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.24	Sebastian Baez - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Dominik Koepfer - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL
- Taylor Harry Fritz
ATP Madrid
26.04.24	Luciano Darderi - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
ATP Munich
21.04.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
20.04.24	Christian Garin - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
19.04.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jack Draper	2:1 ✺
18.04.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
11.03.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0
ATP Paris
30.10.23	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0
ATP Indian Wells
13.03.23	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.22	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0

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