Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona (Spain), clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 April 2024, Tuesday

Referee: Absolu M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Finland	MTV Katsomo
France	Eurosport 1, Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Sebastian Baez		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.53	2.5	Watch
	1.57	2.35
	1.58	2.35	Watch
	1.61	2.41
	1.62	2.41
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.57	2.43	Watch
	1.54	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↑ (1.49)	2.42 ↑ (2.36)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
60.6%

Matteo Arnaldi
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.9%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sebastian Baez - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Baez will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Baez won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.24	Jan-Lennard Struff - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
23.03.24	Dominik Koepfer - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
11.03.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Fabio Fognini - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
03.03.24	Alejandro Tabilo - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Barcelona
15.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Arthur Cazaux	Arnaldi M. retired ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
08.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Sumit Nagal	1:2 ✺
08.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Emil Ruusuvuori	Canceled ✺
ATP Miami
26.03.24	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
24.03.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 ?L?LW

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