Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 22 October 2025, Wednesday


	Sebastian Korda		Ugo Humbert

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.73	2.08
	1.75	2.19
	1.73	2.06	Watch
	1.76	2.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.1)	2.11 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Korda
54.8%

Ugo Humbert
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

55.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Korda's performance.

Ugo Humbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ugo Humbert might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Korda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ugo Humbert could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	0%	45%

Sebastian Korda - Ugo Humbert Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Korda will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%). Humbert will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korda: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Korda (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Korda will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Korda (votes: 8 - 80%). Humbert (votes: 2 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Korda is ranked ATP: 60. Humbert is ranked ATP: 25.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Korda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Korda won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ugo Humbert - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 54.83%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Korda
ATP Stockholm
17.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Kamil Majchrzak	2:1 ✺
13.10.25	Alexei Popyrin - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
01.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Zizou Bergs	0:2 ✺
ATP Tokyo
27.09.25	Sebastian Korda - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LWWLL
- Ugo Humbert
ATP Stockholm
19.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Ugo Humbert	Rune H. retired ✺
17.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Matteo Berrettini	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
05.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 L?WWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Halle
18.06.21	Ugo Humbert - Sebastian Korda	2:1

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