Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Sebastian Korda		Taylor Harry Fritz

	1	2
	3.2	1.36	Watch
			Watch
	2.95	1.39
	3.24	1.39
	3.40	1.32	Watch
	2.98	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↓ (3.46)	1.37 ↑ (1.31)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Korda
30.3%

Taylor Harry Fritz
69.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

72.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

73%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Taylor Harry Fritz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Taylor Harry Fritz than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Sebastian Korda - Taylor Harry Fritz Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Korda will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Fritz will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korda: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Korda (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Fritz (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Korda (1.76) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Korda (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Fritz (votes: 3 - 23.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Korda is ranked ATP: 74. Fritz is ranked ATP: 5.

Recent performances by Korda have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fritz is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Korda may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fritz is a strong favorite.

We predict that Fritz will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Korda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Taylor Harry Fritz - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 72.54%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Korda
ATP Tokyo
25.09.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
24.09.25	Marcos Giron - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
20.09.25	Yibing Wu - Sebastian Korda	2:1 ✺
19.09.25	Adam Walton - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Cameron Norrie - Sebastian Korda	Korda S. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLW?
- Taylor Harry Fritz
ATP Tokyo
26.09.25	Nuno Borges - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
25.09.25	Gabriel Diallo - Taylor Harry Fritz	1:2 ✺
ATP Laver Cup
21.09.25	Alexander Zverev - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Jiri Lehecka	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
10.08.24	Sebastian Korda - Taylor Harry Fritz	2:0
ATP Roma
12.05.24	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Korda	2:0
ATP Monte Carlo
14.04.22	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Korda	2:0

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