Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday


	Simona Waltert		Jelena Ostapenko

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.25	1.6
	2.41	1.65
	2.37	1.59	Watch
	2.3	1.62
	2.32	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.96)	1.62 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Simona Waltert
41%

Jelena Ostapenko
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

68%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

70.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Simona Waltert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Simona Waltert's performance.

Jelena Ostapenko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelena Ostapenko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Simona Waltert than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Simona Waltert that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelena Ostapenko than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelena Ostapenko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Simona Waltert - Jelena Ostapenko Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Waltert will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Ostapenko will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ostapenko: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Waltert is ranked WTA: 97. Ostapenko is ranked WTA: 40.

Waltert is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Ostapenko has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Waltert may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Simona Waltert
WTA Madrid
22.04.26	Oleksandra Oliynykova - Simona Waltert	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Simona Waltert - Dominika Salkova	2:0 ✺
20.04.26	Simona Waltert - Despina Papamichail	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.04.26	Maja Chwalinska - Simona Waltert	2:0 ✺
16.04.26	Rebeka Masarova - Simona Waltert	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW
- Jelena Ostapenko
WTA Stuttgart
15.04.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Mirra Andreeva	1:2 ✺
WTA Linz
10.04.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Elena Gabriela Ruse	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Alexandra Eala	2:0 ✺
WTA Miami
23.03.26	Hailey Baptiste - Jelena Ostapenko	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Jelena Ostapenko - Jasmine Paolini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLWLW

Simona Waltert - Jelena Ostapenko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide