Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 20 April 2026, Monday


	Stefano Travaglia		Nikoloz Basilashvili

	1	2
			Watch
	1.9	1.81	Watch
	2.05	1.82
	1.96	1.8	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.98	1.83	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.75)	1.82 ↓ (2.07)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Stefano Travaglia
48.3%

Nikoloz Basilashvili
51.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.2%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.6%

43.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Travaglia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stefano Travaglia's form might have worsened.

Nikoloz Basilashvili has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nikoloz Basilashvili's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stefano Travaglia than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stefano Travaglia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nikoloz Basilashvili, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Stefano Travaglia - Nikoloz Basilashvili Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Travaglia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Stefano Travaglia will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.37% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Travaglia is ranked ATP: 136. Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 118.

Travaglia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Basilashvili is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Travaglia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Basilashvili will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Travaglia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Stefano Travaglia - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 54.19%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Nikoloz Basilashvili - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.81%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Travaglia
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Stefano Travaglia - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Stefano Travaglia - Raul Brancaccio	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
30.03.26	Dimitar Kuzmanov - Stefano Travaglia	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Andrea Guerrieri - Stefano Travaglia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWLL
- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Ethan Quinn - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
05.04.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
04.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
30.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 L?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Sofia
09.11.20	Stefano Travaglia - Nikoloz Basilashvili	Canceled
ATP Australian Open
15.01.19	Stefano Travaglia - Nikoloz Basilashvili	2:3

Stefano Travaglia - Nikoloz Basilashvili: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide