Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Monte Carlo - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Nikoloz Basilashvili		Christian Garin

	1	2
			Watch
	2.12	1.64	Watch
	2.19	1.7
	1.98	1.79	Watch
	2.05	1.67	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.98)	1.7 ↓ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili
44.9%

Christian Garin
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

53.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

59.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nikoloz Basilashvili has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nikoloz Basilashvili than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Nikoloz Basilashvili - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Basilashvili will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Garin will win (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Basilashvili: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Basilashvili (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Garin Cristian - withdrawn.

Basilashvili is ranked ATP: 129. Garin is ranked ATP: 100.

Basilashvili is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Garin has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Basilashvili may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Basilashvili won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Christian Garin - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.66%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nikoloz Basilashvili
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Nikoloz Basilashvili	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
30.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Michalski	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
19.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Mariano Navone	0:2 ✺
17.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Sho Shimabukuro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWLW
- Christian Garin
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Christian Garin - Jesper De Jong	2:1 ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Christian Garin - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
11.03.26	Christian Garin - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
26.02.26	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP San Diego
27.09.21	Christian Garin - Nikoloz Basilashvili	Canceled

Nikoloz Basilashvili - Christian Garin: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide