Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Ugo Humbert		Reilly Opelka

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.4	2.85	Watch
	1.41	3.16
	1.41	2.80	Watch
			Watch
	1.36	3.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.44)	3.04 ↑ (2.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ugo Humbert
68.7%

Reilly Opelka
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.2%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ugo Humbert has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ugo Humbert's performance.

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Reilly Opelka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilly Opelka than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Ugo Humbert - Reilly Opelka Predictions

Users Predictions: Ugo Humbert will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ugo Humbert will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Humbert is ranked ATP: 24. Opelka is ranked ATP: 62.

Humbert has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Opelka is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Humbert may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Humbert is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ugo Humbert
ATP Basel
23.10.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
22.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Stockholm
19.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Ugo Humbert	Rune H. retired ✺
17.10.25	Ugo Humbert - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWL?W
- Reilly Opelka
ATP Basel
23.10.25	Reilly Opelka - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:1 ✺
21.10.25	Sebastian Baez - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Reilly Opelka - Botic Van De Zandschulp	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Reilly Opelka - Mika Brunold	2:1 ✺
ATP Brussels
13.10.25	Reilly Opelka - Benjamin Bonzi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWWL

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