Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Adelaide, hard - Final

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	9Gem, Stan Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Portugal	Sport TV7
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Ugo Humbert		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.69	2.14
	1.69	2.18	Watch
	1.73	2.1
	1.69	2.19	Watch
	1.63	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↑ (1.62)	2.18 ↓ (2.24)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ugo Humbert
56.4%

Tomas Machac
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.6%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ugo Humbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Tomas Machac has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ugo Humbert than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
65%	0%	35%

Ugo Humbert - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Humbert will win (votes: 13 - 65%). Machac will win (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Humbert: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Humbert (votes: 3 - 60%). Machac (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Machac (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Machac (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Humbert (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Machac (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Humbert is ranked ATP: 36. Machac is ranked ATP: 35.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Humbert won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Ugo Humbert - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.99%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Tomas Machac - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 42.01%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ugo Humbert
ATP Adelaide
16.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Tallon Griekspoor - Ugo Humbert	0:2 ✺
12.01.26	Ugo Humbert - Terence Atmane	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Cameron Norrie - Ugo Humbert	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
14.01.26	Tomas Machac - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Tomas Machac - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Tomas Machac - James Duckworth	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Jiri Lehecka - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Tokyo
30.09.24	Tomas Machac - Ugo Humbert	1:2

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