Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Adelaide, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Sweden	TV4 Tennis
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Tomas Machac		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
	2.33	1.58	Watch
	2.10	1.73	Watch
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.35	1.61	Watch
	2.4	1.58
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.25)	1.62 ↓ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
41.1%

Tommy Paul
58.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Tomas Machac - Tommy Paul Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Machac will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Paul will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Machac (votes: 4 - 40%). Paul (votes: 6 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 35. Paul is ranked ATP: 21.

Machac has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Paul may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Paul is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Machac won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Tomas Machac - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 42.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Tommy Paul - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 57.99%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Adelaide
14.01.26	Tomas Machac - Jaume Munar	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Tomas Machac - Quentin Halys	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Tomas Machac - James Duckworth	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Jiri Lehecka - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
06.12.25	Alex De Minaur - Tomas Machac	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWWLL
- Tommy Paul
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Aleksandar Vukic - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
ATP Brisbane
05.01.26	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard - Tommy Paul	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	3:2 ✺
28.08.25	Nuno Borges - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
12.05.25	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	2:1
ATP Shanghai
09.10.24	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	1:2
ATP Tokyo
27.09.24	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	1:2

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