Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday


	Valentin Royer		Marin Cilic

	1	2
	1.91	1.8	Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
	1.87	1.83	Watch
	1.89	1.89	Watch
	1.83	1.83	Watch
	1.89	1.83	Watch
	1.87	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.09)	1.84 ↑ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Royer
49.5%

Marin Cilic
50.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

55.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Royer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valentin Royer's performance.

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Marin Cilic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Royer than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valentin Royer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marin Cilic than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Marin Cilic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	0%	86.4%

Valentin Royer - Marin Cilic Predictions

Users Predictions: Marin Cilic will win (19 of 22 users predict this - 86.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.02% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marin Cilic will win (13 of 14 users predict this - 92.86%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Royer is ranked ATP: 116. Cilic is ranked ATP: 117.

Recent matches Royer is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cilic is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cilic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Valentin Royer - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.27%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Royer
ATP Challenger
11.04.25	Zsombor Piros - Valentin Royer	Piros Z. retired ✺
09.04.25	August Holmgren - Valentin Royer	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Pol Martin Tiffon - Valentin Royer	Canceled ✺
05.04.25	Valentin Royer - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
04.04.25	Valentin Royer - Enrico Dalla Valle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 ?W?LW
- Marin Cilic
ATP Challenger
11.04.25	Vilius Gaubas - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Marco Trungelliti - Marin Cilic	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
02.04.25	Ignacio Buse - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Marin Cilic - Elmer Moller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWLW

Valentin Royer - Marin Cilic: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide