Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santa Cruz, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2026, Tuesday


	Valerio Aboian		Thiago Cigarran

	1	2
			Watch
	1.22	3.55	Watch
	1.27	4.04
	1.24	3.6	Watch
	1.24	3.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.35)	3.71 ↑ (2.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valerio Aboian
74.9%

Thiago Cigarran
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

35.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valerio Aboian has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valerio Aboian's performance.

Thiago Cigarran has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thiago Cigarran might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valerio Aboian than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valerio Aboian that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Cigarran than the current prediction. (+10.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Thiago Cigarran could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Valerio Aboian - Thiago Cigarran Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aboian (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Aboian is ranked ATP: 534. Cigarran is ranked ATP: 831.

Both players are struggling and far from their best.

Aboian may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aboian won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valerio Aboian
ATP Challenger
07.04.26	Johan Nikles - Valerio Aboian	2:0 ✺
30.03.26	Gonzalo Villanueva - Valerio Aboian	2:1 ✺
23.03.26	Valerio Aboian - Garrett Johns	1:2 ✺
19.03.26	Valerio Aboian - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	0:2 ✺
18.03.26	Valerio Aboian - Joao Eduardo Schiessl	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLLW
- Thiago Cigarran
ATP Challenger
13.04.26	Enzo Camargo Lima - Thiago Cigarran	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Joao Vitor Scramin do Lago - Thiago Cigarran	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Franco Ribero - Thiago Cigarran	Canceled ✺
29.03.26	Thiago Cigarran - Maximo Zeitune	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Thiago Cigarran - Jaime Faria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LW?LL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
04.12.25	Valerio Aboian - Thiago Cigarran	0:2
15.03.25	Thiago Cigarran - Valerio Aboian	1:2
12.05.22	Valerio Aboian - Thiago Cigarran	2:0

Valerio Aboian - Thiago Cigarran: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide