Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Vilius Gaubas		Alex Barrena

	1	2
			Watch
	1.35	2.8	Watch
	1.40	2.84	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.42	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.66)	2.79 ↑ (2.15)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
66.6%

Alex Barrena
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.4%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vilius Gaubas's performance.

Alex Barrena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alex Barrena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vilius Gaubas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alex Barrena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
95.8%	0%	4.2%

Vilius Gaubas - Alex Barrena Predictions

Users Predictions: Vilius Gaubas will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.83% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Vilius Gaubas will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 126. Barrena is ranked ATP: 180.

Gaubas is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Barrena has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Barrena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Gaubas might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gaubas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Santiago
21.02.26	Vilius Gaubas - Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva	2:0 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
19.02.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Luis Guto Miguel - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
15.02.26	Francesco Passaro - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Vilius Gaubas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWWW
- Alex Barrena
ATP Santiago
21.02.26	Daniel Antonio Nunez - Alex Barrena	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.26	Alex Barrena - Vit Kopriva	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
02.02.26	Alex Barrena - Juan Bautista Torres	0:2 ✺
29.01.26	Lautaro Midon - Alex Barrena	2:0 ✺
28.01.26	Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida - Alex Barrena	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
29.10.24	Vilius Gaubas - Alex Barrena	1:2

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