Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Estoril, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 July 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estoril 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Vilius Gaubas		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	3.20	1.36	Watch
	2.90	1.40
	2.90	1.41	Watch
	3.26	1.41
	2.93	1.38	Watch
	3.00	1.37	Watch
	3.20	1.36	Watch
	2.90	1.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.85)	1.38 ↓ (1.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilius Gaubas
31.2%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
68.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.1%

66.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

67.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilius Gaubas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilius Gaubas than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Gaubas (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Gaubas (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Gaubas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gaubas is ranked ATP: 128. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 65.

In recent matches, Gaubas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carreno Busta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gaubas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carreno Busta could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Gaubas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilius Gaubas
ATP Estoril
18.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Chun Hsin Tseng	Canceled ✺
ATP Bastad
13.07.26	Jesper De Jong - Vilius Gaubas	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.07.26	Vilius Gaubas - Facundo Diaz Acosta	0:2 ✺
07.07.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
30.06.26	Kyrian Jacquet - Vilius Gaubas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 ?LLWL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Umag
15.07.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	1:2 ✺
14.07.26	Matej Dodig - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
29.06.26	Denis Shapovalov - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Shapovalov D. Retired ✺
ATP Roland Garros
31.05.26	Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWL?L

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
07.02.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Vilius Gaubas	2:1

Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Carreno-Busta: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide