Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Guangzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Guangzhou 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Yaroslav Demin		Akira Santillan

	1	2
			Watch
	1.83	1.87
	1.89	1.87	Watch
	1.86	1.83	Watch
	1.90	1.85
	1.85	1.83	Watch
	1.85	1.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.95)	1.84 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yaroslav Demin
49.7%

Akira Santillan
50.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.3%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yaroslav Demin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Akira Santillan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yaroslav Demin than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yaroslav Demin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Akira Santillan than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Akira Santillan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Yaroslav Demin - Akira Santillan Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Santillan will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Santillan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Demin is ranked ATP: 614., and Santillan is ranked ATP: 309..

Each of the two players is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Santillan could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Demin has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yaroslav Demin
ATP Challenger
19.10.26	Kasidit Samrej - Yaroslav Demin	0:2 ✺
18.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Alexandr Binda	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
15.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Matthew Dellavedova	1:2 ✺
14.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Filip Peliwo	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWLWL
- Akira Santillan
ATP Challenger
11.10.26	Kangyuan Shi - Akira Santillan	Canceled ✺
08.10.26	Keisuke Saitoh - Akira Santillan	2:1 ✺
06.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Akira Santillan	0:2 ✺
05.10.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Akira Santillan	1:2 ✺
29.09.26	Akira Santillan - Luka Pavlovic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 ?LWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Akira Santillan	0:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yaroslav Demin
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Yaroslav Demin - Harold Mayot	✺

Yaroslav Demin - Akira Santillan