Match Info

AFL Women - Round 10

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday

Location: Unley Oval (Unley)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 3


	Adelaide Crows		Gold Coast Suns

	1	X	2
	3		1.4
	2.7		1.4
	2.7		1.41
	2.8		1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.45)	↓	1.41 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 92.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Adelaide Crows
33.5%

Gold Coast Suns
66.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.6%

1.8%

60.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

1.3%

86%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Adelaide Crows has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Gold Coast Suns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gold Coast Suns's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Adelaide Crows that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+19.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gold Coast Suns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Gold Coast will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gold Coast (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 41:52

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (7 - 10)
2nd Quarter (13 - 9)
3rd Quarter (24 - 16)
4th Quarter (19 - 18)

Preview

Adelaide has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Gold Coast is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

In this matchup, Gold Coast is considered the favorite to take the win.

Our forecast points to a victory for Gold Coast in today's match, at odds of 1.4.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Adelaide has recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 182:64 (averaging 45.5:16 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Adelaide against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 132:30 goals (averaging 66:15 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
5	Gold Coast Suns W	10	7	0	3	493:355	138.87	28
9	Adelaide Crows W	10	5	0	5	470:459	102.40	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Adelaide Crows Women
AFL Women
10.10.26	Richmond Tigers - Adelaide Crows	30:62 ✺
03.10.26	Port Adelaide Power - Adelaide Crows	36:22 ✺
26.09.26	Adelaide Crows - Fremantle Dockers	35:60 ✺
20.09.26	Brisbane Lions - Adelaide Crows	30:39 ✺
12.09.26	Adelaide Crows - Geelong Cats	46:57 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLWL
- Gold Coast Suns Women
AFL Women
10.10.26	Gold Coast Suns - Melbourne Demons	61:39 ✺
03.10.26	Brisbane Lions - Gold Coast Suns	20:40 ✺
27.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - St Kilda Saints	69:39 ✺
19.09.26	Essendon Bombers - Gold Coast Suns	10:51 ✺
12.09.26	Gold Coast Suns - Collingwood Magpies	62:32 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
21.09.25	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	34:50
01.10.23	Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns	47:15
06.03.21	Adelaide Crows - Gold Coast Suns	85:15
21.03.20	Gold Coast Suns - Adelaide Crows	Canceled

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