Match Info

AFL Women - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: TIO Stadium (Darwin)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Fox Footy
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 4


	Essendon Bombers		Richmond Tigers

	1	X	2
	2.1		1.75
	2.00	50.00	1.75
	1.99		1.79
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.78)	16.67 ↓ (50)	1.76 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 83.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Essendon Bombers
44%

Draw
5.4%

Richmond Tigers
50.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.9%

1.8%

46.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Essendon Bombers's form might have worsened.

Richmond Tigers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 41:44

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (13 - 2)
2nd Quarter (11 - 8)
3rd Quarter (8 - 21)
4th Quarter (1 - 7)

Preview

Richmond may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 162:132. (average 40.5:33).

Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 66:68. (average 33:34).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
13	Richmond W	10	4	0	6	385:559	68.87	16
17	Essendon Bombers W	10	1	0	9	328:590	55.59	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Essendon Bombers Women
AFL Women
22.08.26	Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers	66:42 ✺
15.08.26	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	37:85 ✺
01.11.25	Sydney Swans - Essendon Bombers	11:14 ✺
25.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Hawthorn Hawks	26:56 ✺
18.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	16:54 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LLWLL
- Richmond Tigers Women
AFL Women
22.08.26	Western Bulldogs - Richmond Tigers	48:37 ✺
15.08.26	Richmond Tigers - Collingwood Magpies	46:28 ✺
01.11.25	Richmond Tigers - Gold Coast Suns	25:39 ✺
25.10.25	Fremantle Dockers - Richmond Tigers	58:14 ✺
19.10.25	Collingwood Magpies - Richmond Tigers	33:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
29.08.25	Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers	28:43
26.10.24	Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers	42:42
14.10.23	Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers	36:53
18.09.22	Essendon Bombers - Richmond Tigers	24:26

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