Match Info

AFL Women - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 14 November 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 1


	Melbourne Demons		Adelaide Crows

	1	2
	1.38	3.1
	1.42	2.6
			Watch
	1.46	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	2.78 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 85.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Demons
66.2%

Adelaide Crows
33.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.5%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Demons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Adelaide Crows has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Melbourne Demons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adelaide Crows than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adelaide Crows could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows Predictions

Users Predictions: Melbourne Demons will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne Demons will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 49:38

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (20 - 8)
2nd Quarter (7 - 32)
3rd Quarter (14 - 1)
4th Quarter (19 - 8)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Adelaide has had a series of home games.

In this match, Melbourne is seen as the favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Melbourne won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 347:359. (average 31.5:32.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 201:190. (average 40.2:38).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
08.11.25	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	43:56 ✺
01.11.25	Geelong Cats - Melbourne Demons	45:59 ✺
25.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	45:36 ✺
17.10.25	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	65:21 ✺
12.10.25	Fremantle Dockers - Melbourne Demons	40:35 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL
- Adelaide Crows Women
AFL Women
08.11.25	Adelaide Crows - St Kilda Saints	60:16 ✺
02.11.25	Adelaide Crows - Fremantle Dockers	29:17 ✺
24.10.25	Adelaide Crows - Port Adelaide Power	45:52 ✺
18.10.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Adelaide Crows	71:31 ✺
10.10.25	Adelaide Crows - West Coast Eagles	48:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
09.10.24	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	14:16
07.10.23	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	46:56
04.11.22	Melbourne Demons - Adelaide Crows	48:27
26.08.22	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	26:44
08.04.22	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	29:16
28.01.22	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	35:21
10.04.21	Adelaide Crows - Melbourne Demons	33:15

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