Match Info

AFL Women - Round 11

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Brighton Homes Arena (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	Discovery+


	Brisbane Lions		Melbourne Demons

	1	2
	1.68	2.2
	1.65	2.1
			Watch
	1.67	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.75)	2.16 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 85.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
56.4%

Melbourne Demons
43.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.5%

45.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

44.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Melbourne Demons has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Demons than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 45:42

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (4 - 0)
2nd Quarter (9 - 27)
3rd Quarter (24 - 7)
4th Quarter (8 - 2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3.

Brisbane has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Melbourne is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Melbourne has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Brisbane will win today's game, with odds of 1.67.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 289:289. (average 32.1:32.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 121:142. (average 30.3:35.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions Women
AFL Women
18.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	16:54 ✺
11.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	62:33 ✺
04.10.25	Gold Coast Suns - Brisbane Lions	15:83 ✺
28.09.25	Brisbane Lions - Richmond Tigers	54:20 ✺
21.09.25	Western Bulldogs - Brisbane Lions	22:47 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWW
- Melbourne Demons Women
AFL Women
17.10.25	Melbourne Demons - Sydney Swans	65:21 ✺
12.10.25	Fremantle Dockers - Melbourne Demons	40:35 ✺
03.10.25	Melbourne Demons - Essendon Bombers	36:22 ✺
25.09.25	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	93:6 ✺
20.09.25	Melbourne Demons - West Coast Eagles	74:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
06.09.24	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	15:33
04.11.23	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	53:28
26.11.22	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	15:19
18.09.22	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	27:42
01.04.22	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	33:29
21.02.22	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	32:35
27.03.21	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	38:36

Upcoming Matches