Match Info

AFL - Round 11

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL
Usa	FOX Sports 2


	Port Adelaide Power		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	1.48	2.65
	1.48	2.45
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.52)	2.55 (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 165.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Port Adelaide Power
63.3%

Carlton Blues
36.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.7%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Adelaide Power has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Adelaide Power than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:77

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (12 - 30)
04:29, Horne-Francis J. (G),
07:51, McGovern M. (G),
10:48, Ison J. (G),
14:28, Byrne T. (G),
18:38, Walsh S. (G),
23:12, Horne-Francis J. (G),
25:06, Hewett G. (G),
2nd Quarter (11 - 28)
00:23, Anastasopoulos T. (Behind),
03:51, Cripps P. (G),
07:28, Hayward W. (G),
09:34, Butters Z. (Behind),
10:49, Georgiades M. (G),
12:37, Kemp B. (G),
15:08, Cripps P. (Behind),
15:47, (Behind Rushed),
18:15, Ison J. (G),
18:58, Butters Z. (Behind),
20:32, Kemp B. (Behind),
22:17, Whitlock J. (Behind),
28:19, McKay H. (Behind),
30:21, Hewett G. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (14 - 10)
07:34, Smith J. (Behind),
12:32, Cripps P. (Behind),
16:14, Byrne T. (Behind),
16:33, Hayward W. (G),
17:46, Moraes C. (Behind),
20:20, Whitlock J. (G),
22:42, Young F. (Behind),
24:00, Sweet J. (Behind),
25:02, Durdin C. (G),
4th Quarter (21 - 24)
01:14, Marshall T. (G),
03:56, McKay H. (Behind),
04:29, Evans F. (G),
06:02, McKay H. (G),
08:37, McGovern M. (Behind),
09:40, Ison J. (Behind),
10:38, Ison J. (Behind),
13:33, Georgiades M. (Behind),
14:55, McGovern M. (G),
17:14, Byrne T. (Behind),
22:08, Whitlock J. (G),
24:03, Wilson B. (Behind),
26:02, Whitlock J. (Behind),
27:19, Sweet J. (Behind),
28:14, Horne-Francis J. (G),

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Adelaide won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Port Adelaide may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Port Adelaide will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Port Adelaide won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1747:1467. (average 91.9:77.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Adelaide won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 789:472. (average 98.6:59).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Adelaide Power
AFL
15.05.26	Gold Coast Suns - Port Adelaide Power	98:73 ✺
08.05.26	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	72:74 ✺
01.05.26	Adelaide Crows - Port Adelaide Power	76:75 ✺
25.04.26	Port Adelaide Power - Geelong Cats	95:65 ✺
18.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Port Adelaide Power	89:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LLLWL
- Carlton Blues
AFL
16.05.26	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	74:62 ✺
08.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	100:89 ✺
02.05.26	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	69:108 ✺
25.04.26	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	103:89 ✺
16.04.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	83:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
15.08.25	Carlton Blues - Port Adelaide Power	118:64
26.06.25	Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues	110:60
26.07.24	Carlton Blues - Port Adelaide Power	65:79
30.05.24	Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues	71:107
15.07.23	Carlton Blues - Port Adelaide Power	122:72
16.04.22	Carlton Blues - Port Adelaide Power	94:91
14.08.21	Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues	140:45

Port Adelaide Power - Carlton Blues: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide