Match Info

AFL - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Carlton Blues		Western Bulldogs

	1	2
	2.4	1.58
	2.35	1.5
			Watch
	2.5	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (3.2)	1.52 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 187.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlton Blues
38.6%

Western Bulldogs
61.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.8%

70.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

62.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carlton Blues's performance.

Western Bulldogs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Western Bulldogs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carlton (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:99

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (17 - 25)
02:52, Sanders R. (G),
04:26, McKay H. (G),
06:12, McGovern M. (Behind),
09:23, Bontempelli M. (G),
12:55, (Behind Rushed),
14:57, Hayward W. (Behind),
15:50, Jones A. (Behind),
17:36, McKay H. (Behind),
20:23, Kemp B. (Behind),
21:35, Carroll M. (G),
23:47, Baker O. (G),
26:12, Naughton A. (G),
2nd Quarter (7 - 9)
00:32, Naughton A. (Behind),
06:28, (Behind Rushed),
13:01, Cripps P. (G),
20:51, West R. (G),
23:01, Lewis W. (Behind),
26:03, Hewett G. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (17 - 15)
06:30, Carroll M. (G),
08:18, Naughton A. (Behind),
09:14, (Behind Rushed),
10:20, Emmett L. (Behind),
12:04, (Behind Rushed),
12:47, (Behind Rushed),
14:55, McKay H. (Behind),
16:41, Naughton A. (G),
19:27, Cripps P. (G),
21:27, Hayward W. (Behind),
22:27, Hynes C. (G),
23:58, (Behind Rushed),
4th Quarter (33 - 13)
04:42, Carroll M. (G),
06:07, McKay H. (G),
10:54, Kemp B. (G),
13:05, Ison J. (Behind),
16:05, Naughton A. (Behind),
19:21, Walsh S. (Behind),
21:03, Ainsworth B. (G),
23:09, Ison J. (G),
30:28, West R. (G),
31:55, Naughton A. (G),
33:03, Ison J. (Behind),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 1.

Carlton has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Western's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Carlton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Western could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1197:1255. (average 74.8:78.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 586:666. (average 73.3:83.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlton Blues
AFL
08.05.26	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	100:89 ✺
02.05.26	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	69:108 ✺
25.04.26	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	103:89 ✺
16.04.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	83:88 ✺
09.04.26	Adelaide Crows - Carlton Blues	114:86 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Western Bulldogs
AFL
08.05.26	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	72:74 ✺
01.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Fremantle Dockers	102:114 ✺
23.04.26	Western Bulldogs - Sydney Swans	60:126 ✺
17.04.26	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	131:56 ✺
11.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	104:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
28.03.25	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	75:83
13.07.24	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	100:86
13.05.23	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	59:79
24.03.22	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	90:102
09.05.21	Western Bulldogs - Carlton Blues	107:91
12.07.20	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	103:51
15.06.19	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	100:103

Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide