Match Info

AFL - Round 9

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Adelaide Oval (Adelaide)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1


	Port Adelaide Power		Western Bulldogs

	1	2
	1.78	2.05
	1.72	2
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (2)	2.03 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 175.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Adelaide Power
53.6%

Western Bulldogs
46.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.6%

52.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Adelaide Power has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Port Adelaide Power's performance.

Western Bulldogs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Western Bulldogs might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Adelaide Power than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Western Bulldogs than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 90:86

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (25 - 38)
01:44, Naughton A. (G),
06:57, Richards E. (G),
13:02, Dale B. (Behind),
15:08, Kennedy M. (Behind),
15:53, West R. (G),
17:45, Georgiades M. (G),
19:37, Georgiades M. (Behind),
21:58, Jones A. (G),
25:56, Watkins J. (G),
27:40, Georgiades M. (G),
29:05, Bontempelli M. (G),
30:48, Sweet J. (G),
32:43, Naughton A. (G),
2nd Quarter (16 - 21)
04:28, Farrell K. (Behind),
07:23, MacKinlay E. (G),
09:25, Freijah J. (G),
13:25, Durdin C. (Behind),
14:28, Whitlock J. (G),
15:40, Jones A. (Behind),
17:35, Lewis W. (G),
19:23, Budarick C. (Behind),
23:54, English T. (Behind),
25:38, Burgoyne J. (Behind),
28:23, Wehr J. (Behind),
30:09, Lewis W. (G),
3rd Quarter (14 - 1)
00:29, MacKinlay E. (Behind),
02:02, Gallagher H. (Behind),
06:47, Georgiades M. (G),
10:17, Evans L. (G),
16:07, Georgiades M. (Behind),
4th Quarter (17 - 14)
01:00, West R. (Behind),
01:40, (Behind Rushed),
03:39, (Behind Rushed),
05:37, Jones A. (Behind),
06:00, West R. (G),
09:05, Naughton A. (Behind),
10:11, Georgiades M. (Behind),
10:55, Georgiades M. (Behind),
13:12, Gallagher H. (Behind),
15:24, Georgiades M. (G),
18:37, Williams B. (Behind),
23:00, (Behind Rushed),
24:14, Durdin C. (G),
25:31, (Behind Rushed),
28:35, Gallagher H. (Behind),
29:24, Lewis W. (Behind),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Adelaide won 4.

Recent performances by Port Adelaide have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Western has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Port Adelaide may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Port Adelaide won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1538:1465. (average 76.9:73.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Adelaide won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 1028:877. (average 85.7:73.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Adelaide Power
AFL
01.05.26	Adelaide Crows - Port Adelaide Power	76:75 ✺
25.04.26	Port Adelaide Power - Geelong Cats	95:65 ✺
18.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Port Adelaide Power	89:86 ✺
12.04.26	Port Adelaide Power - St Kilda Saints	67:81 ✺
04.04.26	Richmond Tigers - Port Adelaide Power	48:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLLW
- Western Bulldogs
AFL
01.05.26	Western Bulldogs - Fremantle Dockers	102:114 ✺
23.04.26	Western Bulldogs - Sydney Swans	60:126 ✺
17.04.26	Geelong Cats - Western Bulldogs	131:56 ✺
11.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	104:64 ✺
05.04.26	Western Bulldogs - Essendon Bombers	99:65 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
02.05.25	Western Bulldogs - Port Adelaide Power	131:41
05.07.24	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	102:54
09.06.23	Western Bulldogs - Port Adelaide Power	85:107
15.04.23	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	70:56
06.05.22	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	86:69
11.09.21	Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs	45:116
20.08.21	Western Bulldogs - Port Adelaide Power	64:66

Port Adelaide Power - Western Bulldogs: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide