Match Info

WNBA

Date: 5 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Gateway Center Arena (College Park, GA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network


	Atlanta Dream		Phoenix Mercury

	1	2
	1.37	3.05	Watch
	1.36	3.20
	1.36	3.05
	1.41	3.07
	1.36	3.03	Watch
	1.39	3
	1.36	3.25	Watch
	1.39	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↑ (1.34)	3.08 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 183.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlanta Dream
69.1%

Phoenix Mercury
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.7%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlanta Dream has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Phoenix Mercury has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlanta Dream than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlanta Dream that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Mercury than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Phoenix Mercury could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Atlanta will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Phoenix will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlanta: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlanta (votes: 1 - 50%). Phoenix (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 96:89

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
10. Howard R.	25. Thomas A.
00. Hillmon-Baker N.	24. Bonner D.
5. Reese A.	1. Brochant N.
3. Canada J.	2. Copper K.
15. Gray A.	0. Plum K.
Coaches
. Smesko K.	. Tibbetts N.

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ WNBA (Play Offs: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 4.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Phoenix may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Atlanta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Atlanta won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1580:1549. (average 79:77.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlanta won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 860:798. (average 78.2:72.5).

Outrights of WNBA for now

Atlanta Dream W: 43.71%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlanta Dream
WNBA
03.08.26	Atlanta Dream - Las Vegas Aces	87:109 ✺
31.07.26	Atlanta Dream - Seattle Storm	98:89 ✺
29.07.26	Dallas Wings - Atlanta Dream	81:82 ✺
19.07.26	Atlanta Dream - Chicago Sky	93:91 ✺
17.07.26	Toronto Tempo - Atlanta Dream	92:111 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWWW
- Phoenix Mercury
WNBA
03.08.26	Chicago Sky - Phoenix Mercury	101:106 ✺
01.08.26	Phoenix Mercury - New York Liberty	92:94 ✺
29.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Golden State Valkyries	91:89 ✺
22.07.26	Los Angeles Sparks - Phoenix Mercury	82:86 ✺
19.07.26	Phoenix Mercury - Connecticut Sun	72:63 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

WNBA
24.05.26	Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury	82:80
10.08.25	Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream	66:74
01.08.25	Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury	96:72
23.07.25	Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream	79:90
03.09.24	Phoenix Mercury - Atlanta Dream	74:66
23.08.24	Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury	80:82
21.08.24	Atlanta Dream - Phoenix Mercury	72:63

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