Match Info

Lega A - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: PalaFerraris (Casale Monferrato)

Referee: Borgo C. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Italy	LBA TV


	Derthona Basket Tortona		Olimpia Milano

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.62	Watch
	2.26	1.61	Watch
	2.25	1.67
	2.37	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (2.21)	1.61 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 169.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derthona Basket Tortona
41.4%

Olimpia Milano
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

57.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.4%

53.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derthona Basket Tortona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Olimpia Milano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derthona Basket Tortona than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olimpia Milano than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Derthona Basket Tortona - Olimpia Milano Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tortona will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Olimpia Milano will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tortona (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 - Tortona (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tortona (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
4. Gorham J.	12. Brooks A.
3. Hubb P.	3. Ellis Q.
17. Olejniczak D.	23. Guduric M.
6. Pecchia A.	16. LeDay Z.
1. Vital C.	32. Nebo J.
Substitutes
13. Baldasso T.	10. Bolmaro L.
19. Biligha P.	42. Dunston B.
7. Chapman B.	21. Flaccadori D.
5. Manjon E.	1. Mannion N.
25. Riismaa J.	17. Ricci G.
12. Strautins A.	7. Tonut S.
11. Tandia L.	35. Tote L.
Coaches
. Fioretti M.	. Poeta G.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tortona won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Tortona may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Tortona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 948:1061. (average 72.9:81.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Tortona won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 424:488. (average 70.7:81.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
10	Tortona	2	1	1	171:201	2
11	Olimpia Milano	2	1	1	155:154	2

Last Results with these Odds

Derthona Basket Tortona - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 42.33%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derthona Basket Tortona
Italian Lega A Basketball
11.01.26	Basket Brescia - Derthona Basket Tortona	92:86 ✺
04.01.26	Cantù - Derthona Basket Tortona	79:85 ✺
28.12.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Reggiana	81:67 ✺
21.12.25	Vanoli-Braga Cremona - Derthona Basket Tortona	71:76 ✺
14.12.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Dinamo Sassari	118:113 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWWW
- Olimpia Milano
Euroleague
15.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Crvena Zvezda	96:104 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
12.01.26	Napoli Basket - Olimpia Milano	71:77 ✺
Euroleague
09.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Anadolu Efes Pilsen	87:74 ✺
06.01.26	Panathinaikos - Olimpia Milano	74:87 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
04.01.26	Olimpia Milano - Udine	85:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
05.10.25	Olimpia Milano - Derthona Basket Tortona	71:74
Club Friendly Basketball
10.09.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Olimpia Milano	70:81
Italian Lega A Basketball
27.04.25	Derthona Basket Tortona - Olimpia Milano	68:85
01.12.24	Olimpia Milano - Derthona Basket Tortona	94:98
Club Friendly Basketball
04.09.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Olimpia Milano	72:85
Italian Lega A Basketball
14.01.24	Olimpia Milano - Derthona Basket Tortona	83:82
22.10.23	Derthona Basket Tortona - Olimpia Milano	75:79

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