Match Info

ACB - Round 15

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Pavello Fontajau (Girona)

Referee: Gonzalez Galvez I. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	DAZN
Canada	DAZN Canada
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	DAZN France
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Spain	DAZN Espana
United-kingdom	DAZN
Usa	DAZN USA


	Girona		Baskonia

	1	2
	2.4	1.56	Watch
	2.38	1.56	Watch
	2.03	1.75	Watch
	2.05	1.67
	2.39	1.6	Watch
	2.2	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.58)	1.64 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Girona
42.3%

Baskonia
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

60%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Girona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Girona's performance.

Baskonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Baskonia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Girona than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baskonia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Girona - Baskonia Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Girona will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Baskonia will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Girona: 62.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3.5, OT - Baskonia (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Girona will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Girona (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Baskonia (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 89:93

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Geben M.	18. Diop K.
8. Hughes M.	11. Forrest T.
11. Livingston O.	7. Kurucs R.
23. Martinez S.	17. Radzevicius G.
29. Susinskas M.	10. Spagnolo M.
Substitutes
4. Busquets J.	1. Diakite M.
21. Fernandez J.	25. Frisch C.
9. Ferrando G.	9. Luwawu-Cabarrot T.
7. Hollanders S.	5. Omoruyi E.
25. Maric N.	2. Simmons K.
5. Needham D.	4. Villar R.
10. Vildoza J.
Coaches
. Fernandez M.	. Galbiati P.

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ ACB (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Girona won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Baskonia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Baskonia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Girona won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 491:514. (average 81.8:85.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Girona won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 251:235. (average 83.7:78.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
3	Baskonia	2	2	0	216:175	4
15	Basquet Girona	3	1	2	254:310	2

Last Results with these Odds

Baskonia - the odds 1.49 are the expected chance of winning is 63.38%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bàsquet Girona
Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Girona - Bilbao Basket	89:93 ✺
02.01.26	Basquet Manresa - Girona	95:97 ✺
28.12.25	Girona - Força Lleida CE	103:86 ✺
20.12.25	Girona - Canarias	89:96 ✺
14.12.25	Real Madrid - Girona	112:76 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWLL
- Saski Baskonia
Euroleague
09.01.26	Baskonia - ASVEL Basket	78:73 ✺
07.01.26	Bayern München - Baskonia	96:89 ✺
Spanish ACB League
04.01.26	Baskonia - BC Andorra	99:92 ✺
Euroleague
02.01.26	Baskonia - Fenerbahçe	93:108 ✺
Spanish ACB League
29.12.25	CB Breogán - Baskonia	100:103 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish ACB League
06.04.25	Baskonia - Girona	92:76
12.01.25	Girona - Baskonia	96:67
05.05.24	Baskonia - Girona	92:96
30.12.23	Girona - Baskonia	85:93
24.05.23	Girona - Baskonia	70:75
27.11.22	Baskonia - Girona	95:68

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