Match Info

NBL - Round 12

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: WIN Entertainment Centre (Wollongong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	Illawarra Hawks		Brisbane Bullets

	1	2
			Watch
	1.33	3.1
	1.35	3.26
	1.3	3.26	Watch
	1.33	3
	1.36	3.28	Watch
	1.36	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)	3.19 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 188.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Illawarra Hawks
70.5%

Brisbane Bullets
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Illawarra Hawks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Illawarra Hawks's performance.

Brisbane Bullets has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brisbane Bullets might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Illawarra Hawks than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Illawarra Hawks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Bullets than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brisbane Bullets could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Illawarra will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Illawarra (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 185, OT - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 186, OT - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 188.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 97:91

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Harvey T. (C)	24. Harrison T.
6. Hickey W.	31. Mathias D.
0. McGee J.	26. McDaniel S.
22. Peatling M.	8. Norton M. (C)
9. Swaka W.	32. Taylor T.
Substitutes
2. Ball J.	6. Devers T.
14. Bayles B.	4. Ducas A.
21. Blanchfield T.	1. Freeman-Liberty J.
31. Froling H.	15. Holt J.
11. Grida D.	0. Murray T.
16. Narkle J.	12. Purchase J.
77. Peterson QJ	18. Smith-Milner T.
19. Yates L.
Coaches
. Tatum J.	. Lash S.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 8 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Illawarra won 5.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Illawarra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Illawarra has had a series of home games.

In this match, Illawarra is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Illawarra won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1832:1756. (average 91.6:87.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Illawarra won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 846:768. (average 94:85.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Illawarra Hawks - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 65.26%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Illawarra Hawks
Australian NBL
06.12.25	Illawarra Hawks - Cairns Taipans	76:93 ✺
04.12.25	Illawarra Hawks - South East Melbourne Phoenix	113:109 OT ✺
21.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	102:105 ✺
19.11.25	Adelaide 36ers - Illawarra Hawks	97:85 ✺
15.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Sydney Kings	71:98 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLLL
- Brisbane Bullets
Australian NBL
05.12.25	Adelaide 36ers - Brisbane Bullets	90:65 ✺
20.11.25	Brisbane Bullets - South East Melbourne Phoenix	76:103 ✺
15.11.25	Melbourne United - Brisbane Bullets	99:93 ✺
12.11.25	Brisbane Bullets - New Zealand Breakers	84:113 ✺
08.11.25	Tasmania JackJumpers - Brisbane Bullets	81:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
11.10.25	Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets	116:89
20.01.25	Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets	121:87
27.12.24	Brisbane Bullets - Illawarra Hawks	84:102
27.09.24	Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets	113:101
03.02.24	Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets	89:76
13.01.24	Brisbane Bullets - Illawarra Hawks	110:103
03.12.23	Brisbane Bullets - Illawarra Hawks	78:77

Illawarra Hawks - Brisbane Bullets: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide