Match Info

NBL - Round 10

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: WIN Entertainment Centre (Wollongong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN


	Illawarra Hawks		Melbourne United

	1	2
			Watch
	2.7	1.43
	2.03	1.66	Watch
	2.7	1.49	Watch
	2.4	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.97)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 186.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Illawarra Hawks
38.6%

Melbourne United
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Illawarra Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Illawarra Hawks's form might have worsened.

Melbourne United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Illawarra Hawks than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Illawarra Hawks, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne United than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Illawarra will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Melbourne will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 183.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5, OT - Illawarra (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Illawarra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:95

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
43. Bolden J.	7. Delany F.
1. Harvey T. (C)	35. Doyle M.
6. Hickey W.	14. Edwards J.
0. McGee J.	43. Goulding C. (C)
9. Swaka W.	2. Walker T.
Substitutes
14. Bayles B.	15. Bowen K.
21. Blanchfield T.	4. Daniels D.
31. Froling H.	30. Koppens T.
10. McDowell-White K.	13. Krebs T.
16. Narkle J.	18. Krslovic F.
22. Peatling M.	9. Machar M.
77. Peterson QJ	12. Wilson T.
19. Yates L.
Coaches
. Tatum J.	. Vickerman D.

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NBL (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Illawarra won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Illawarra won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 1894:1903. (average 94.7:95.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Illawarra won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 987:957. (average 98.7:95.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Illawarra Hawks
Australian NBL
19.11.25	Adelaide 36ers - Illawarra Hawks	97:85 ✺
15.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Sydney Kings	71:98 ✺
07.11.25	Cairns Taipans - Illawarra Hawks	90:107 ✺
05.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	107:93 ✺
02.11.25	Adelaide 36ers - Illawarra Hawks	90:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWWL
- Melbourne United
Australian NBL
15.11.25	Melbourne United - Brisbane Bullets	99:93 ✺
08.11.25	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Melbourne United	81:92 ✺
05.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	107:93 ✺
03.11.25	Melbourne United - Sydney Kings	92:95 ✺
25.10.25	Melbourne United - Adelaide 36ers	81:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
05.11.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	107:93
22.03.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	114:104
19.03.25	Melbourne United - Illawarra Hawks	71:80
16.03.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	77:83
12.03.25	Melbourne United - Illawarra Hawks	100:102
08.03.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	88:96
18.01.25	Illawarra Hawks - Melbourne United	117:95

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