Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - First round - Round 6

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Segafredo Arena (Bologna) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	20:00	DAZN
Finland	21:00	DAZN
Slovenia	20:00	Arena Sport 1 Premium


	Italy		Lithuania

	1	2
	3.25	1.3	Watch
	2.85	1.40
	3.15	1.35	Watch
	2.98	1.34
	2.95	1.36	Watch
	2.95	1.32
	3.07	1.35
	3.1	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.13)	1.35 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 165.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Italy
30.7%

Lithuania
69.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Italy's form might have worsened.

Lithuania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lithuania's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	0%	35.3%

Italy - Lithuania Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Lithuania will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 42% – 87.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 1 - 50%). Lithuania (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
4. Candi L. Venezia	14. Buzelis M. Chicago Bulls
24. Ferrari F. Virtus Bologna	32. Jakucionis K. Miami Heat
1. Mannion N. Milano	2. Normantas M. Bilbao
16. Tessitori A. Venezia	10. Tubelis A. Zalgiris Kaunas
7. Tonut S. Milano	17. Valanciunas J. Denver Nuggets
Substitutes
45. Akele N. Virtus Bologna	1. Blazevic M. Tofas
25. Baldasso T. Derthona Tortona	9. Brazdeikis I. Zalgiris Kaunas
48. Emejuru G.	23. Jogela M. Trento
19. Procida G. Real Madrid	7. Radzevicius G. Saski Baskonia
17. Ricci G. Milano	43. Sargiunas I. BC Rytas
38. Rossato R. Reggiana	5. Tarolis D. Neptunas
18. Spagnolo M. Saski Baskonia	3. Velicka A. Neptunas
Coaches
. Ramondino M.	. Kurtinaitis R.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Italy won 2.

Italy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Lithuania will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Italy won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 524:574. (average 74.9:82).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Italy basketball
World Championship Basketball
02.07.26	Iceland - Italy	83:102 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
27.06.26	Slovenia - Italy	83:86 ✺
24.06.26	Italy - Croatia	103:91 ✺
World Championship Basketball
02.03.26	Italy - Great Britain	84:75 ✺
27.02.26	Great Britain - Italy	57:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWWWW
- Lithuania basketball
World Championship Basketball
02.07.26	Lithuania - Great Britain	105:85 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
28.06.26	Lithuania - Ukraine	92:96 ✺
World Championship Basketball
02.03.26	Lithuania - Iceland	99:82 ✺
27.02.26	Iceland - Lithuania	86:85 ✺
30.11.25	Lithuania - Italy	81:82 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Basketball
30.11.25	Lithuania - Italy	81:82
Olympic Games - Basketball
06.07.24	Italy - Lithuania	64:88
World Championship Basketball
25.02.19	Lithuania - Italy	86:73
29.11.18	Italy - Lithuania	70:65
EuroBasket
03.09.17	Lithuania - Italy	78:73
16.09.15	Italy - Lithuania	85:95 OT (79:79)
19.09.13	Lithuania - Italy	81:77

Italy - Lithuania