Match Info

EuroBasket - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 9 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Xiaomi Arena (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 2
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	CT sport, CT sport Plus
Denmark	DAZN
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports 1
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Italy	DAZN Italia
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
Poland	TVP Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
Sweden	DAZN, SVT Play
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Court Side 1891


	Lithuania		Greece

	1	2
	3.05	1.4	Watch
	3.3	1.34
	3	1.41	Watch
	3.17	1.38
	2.68	1.44	Watch
	3.09	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.3)	1.4 ↑ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lithuania
31.4%

Greece
68.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

70.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

71.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lithuania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Greece has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lithuania than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Greece than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.2%	0%	26.8%

Lithuania - Greece Predictions

Users Predictions: 40 users predict this event. Lithuania will win (votes: 30 - 75%). Greece will win (votes: 10 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lithuania: 61.6% – 88.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 152.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5, OT - Lithuania (4.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lithuania (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +10.5 - Lithuania (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 162.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lithuania will win (27 of 30 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Lithuania (votes: 30 - 90.9%). Greece (votes: 3 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 79:86

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Blazevic M. BC Wolves	34. Antetokounmpo G. Milwaukee Bucks
7. Radzevicius G. BC Rytas	2. Dorsey T. Olympiacos Piraeus
91. Sirvydis D. Zalgiris Kaunas	44. Mitoglou K. Panathinaikos
17. Valanciunas J. (C) Denver Nuggets	16. Papanikolaou K. (C) Olympiacos Piraeus
3. Velicka A. Braunschweig	10. Sloukas K. Panathinaikos
Substitutes
15. Birutis L. Zalgiris Kaunas	37. Antetokounmpo K. Murcia
31. Giedraitis R. Crvena zvezda	43. Antetokounmpo T.
2. Normantas M. BC Rytas	11. Kalaitzakis P. Panathinaikos
43. Sargiunas I. BC Rytas	19. Katsivelis D. PAOK
8. Sedekerskis T. Saski Baskonia	5. Larentzakis G. Olympiacos Piraeus
10. Tubelis A. Zalgiris Kaunas	20. Samontourov A.
	7. Toliopoulos V. Panathinaikos
Coaches
. Kurtinaitis R.	. Spanoulis V.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 2.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Lithuania may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Greece is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 366:358. (average 61:59.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lithuania basketball
EuroBasket
06.09.25	Lithuania - Latvia	88:79 ✺
03.09.25	Lithuania - Sweden	74:71 ✺
01.09.25	Finland - Lithuania	78:81 ✺
30.08.25	Lithuania - Germany	88:107 ✺
29.08.25	Lithuania - Montenegro	94:67 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLW
- Greece basketball
EuroBasket
07.09.25	Greece - Israel	84:79 ✺
04.09.25	Spain - Greece	86:90 ✺
02.09.25	Greece - Bosnia and Herzegovina	77:80 ✺
31.08.25	Georgia - Greece	53:94 ✺
30.08.25	Cyprus - Greece	69:96 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Basketball
01.09.23	Lithuania - Greece	92:67
EuroBasket
09.09.17	Lithuania - Greece	64:77
Friendly International Basketball
29.08.15	Greece - Lithuania	67:62
16.08.14	Lithuania - Greece	86:67
28.08.13	Greece - Lithuania	N/A
Acropolis Tournament
28.08.13	Greece - Lithuania	80:62

Lithuania - Greece: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide