Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 5

Date: 3 September 2025, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nokia Arena (Tampere) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	10:30	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 2
Finland	16:30	Ruutu+
France	15:30	beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	15:30	Magenta Sport
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 4
Italy	15:30	DAZN Italia
Lithuania	16:30	TV3
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	SVT 1, SVT Play
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV
International	13:30	Court Side 1891


	Lithuania		Sweden

	1	2
	1.28	3.8	Watch
	1.26	3.9
	1.3	3.75	Watch
	1.29	3.63
	1.21	3.87	Watch
	1.2	4.33
	1.28	3.97	Watch
	1.1	5.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↑ (1.08)	4.09 ↓ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 164.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lithuania
76.7%

Sweden
23.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

88.7%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lithuania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lithuania's form might have worsened.

Sweden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sweden's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Lithuania - Sweden Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lithuania will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Sweden will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lithuania: 31.2% – 83%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lithuania (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Sweden (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -6, OT - Sweden (6.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -9.5, OT - Lithuania (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Lithuania (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Sweden (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:78

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Giedraitis R. Crvena zvezda	35. Birgander S. Murcia
2. Normantas M. BC Rytas	18. Gaddefors V. Torun
7. Radzevicius G. BC Rytas	12. Hakanson L. (C) Murcia
91. Sirvydis D. Zalgiris Kaunas	9. Larsson P. Miami Heat
17. Valanciunas J. (C) Denver Nuggets	19. Pantzar M. J. Bilbao
Substitutes
15. Birutis L. Zalgiris Kaunas	1. Andersson D. Dziki Warszawa
1. Blazevic M. BC Wolves	6. Borg T. Palencia
43. Sargiunas I. BC Rytas	5. Falk W. Murcia
8. Sedekerskis T. Saski Baskonia	31. Njie B. Braunschweig
10. Tubelis A. Zalgiris Kaunas	2. Ramstedt A. Valur
3. Velicka A. Braunschweig	16. Spires N.
Coaches
. Kurtinaitis R.	. Riipinen M.

Preview

Lithuania is Qualified for EuroBasket (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Lithuania is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sweden has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lithuania is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 192:133. (average 96:66.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lithuania basketball
EuroBasket
01.09.25	Finland - Lithuania	78:81 ✺
30.08.25	Lithuania - Germany	88:107 ✺
29.08.25	Lithuania - Montenegro	94:67 ✺
27.08.25	Great Britain - Lithuania	70:94 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
22.08.25	Lithuania - Iceland	96:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWW
- Sweden basketball
EuroBasket
01.09.25	Sweden - Montenegro	81:87 ✺
30.08.25	Great Britain - Sweden	59:78 ✺
29.08.25	Germany - Sweden	105:83 ✺
27.08.25	Sweden - Finland	90:93 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
20.08.25	Sweden - Estonia	87:88 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
14.08.13	Lithuania - Sweden	95:64
12.08.13	Lithuania - Sweden	97:69

Lithuania - Sweden