Match Info

EuroBasket - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Xiaomi Arena (Riga)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	CT sport, CT sport Plus
Finland	Ruutu+
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	ERT 1
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	TVP Sport
Serbia	SportKlub 1
Slovakia	STVR Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
World	Court Side 1891


	Lithuania		Latvia

	1	2
	2.75	1.48	Watch
	3	1.4
	2.85	1.45	Watch
	2.78	1.47
	2.67	1.41	Watch
	2.79	1.49
	2.74	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.91)	1.45 ↓ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 163.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lithuania
34.1%

Latvia
65.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lithuania has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Latvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lithuania than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Latvia than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.1%	0%	17.9%

Lithuania - Latvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 54 users predict this event. Lithuania will win (votes: 44 - 81.5%). Latvia will win (votes: 10 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lithuania: 71.1% – 91.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5, OT - Lithuania (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 165.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 165, OT - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +4.5, 1st Half - Lithuania (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lithuania will win (31 of 36 users predict this - 86.11%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Lithuania (votes: 33 - 86.8%). Latvia (votes: 5 - 13.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:85

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Blazevic M. BC Wolves	8. Bertans Dav. Dubai
7. Radzevicius G. BC Rytas	47. Kurucs A. Rio Breogan
91. Sirvydis D. Zalgiris Kaunas	19. Lomazs R. Bonn
10. Tubelis A. Zalgiris Kaunas	6. Porzingis K. Atlanta Hawks
3. Velicka A. Braunschweig	55. Zagars A. Fenerbahce
Substitutes
15. Birutis L. Zalgiris Kaunas	9. Bertans Dai. VEF Riga
31. Giedraitis R. Crvena zvezda	18. Cavars K. Sabah Baku
2. Normantas M. BC Rytas	5. Mejeris M. CSU Cluj Napoca
43. Sargiunas I. BC Rytas	11. Smits R. Anadolu Efes
8. Sedekerskis T. Saski Baskonia	28. Steinbergs M. Manresa
17. Valanciunas J. Denver Nuggets	66. Zoriks K. Le Portel
Coaches
. Kurtinaitis R.	. Banchi L.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 3.

Lithuania is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Latvia has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Latvia is the team to beat.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Lithuania won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 882:829. (average 80.2:75.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lithuania basketball
EuroBasket
03.09.25	Lithuania - Sweden	74:71 ✺
01.09.25	Finland - Lithuania	78:81 ✺
30.08.25	Lithuania - Germany	88:107 ✺
29.08.25	Lithuania - Montenegro	94:67 ✺
27.08.25	Great Britain - Lithuania	70:94 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWLWW
- Latvia basketball
EuroBasket
03.09.25	Czech Republic - Latvia	75:109 ✺
01.09.25	Portugal - Latvia	62:78 ✺
30.08.25	Latvia - Serbia	80:84 ✺
29.08.25	Estonia - Latvia	70:72 ✺
27.08.25	Latvia - Turkey	73:93 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
14.08.25	Latvia - Lithuania	105:109 OT
World Championship Basketball
09.09.23	Latvia - Lithuania	98:63
Friendly International Basketball
22.08.23	Lithuania - Latvia	93:69
26.06.22	Lithuania - Latvia	98:62
22.06.22	Latvia - Lithuania	70:52
25.07.20	Lithuania - Latvia	82:59
09.09.18	Lithuania - Latvia	80:97

Lithuania - Latvia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide