Match Info

ITALY: Lega A - Round 20

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday

Location: PalaBarbuto (Naples)

Referee: Capotorto G. (Ita)


	Napoli Basket		Pistoia Basket

	1	2
			Watch
	1.05	8.75
			Watch
	1.05	7.93
	1.06	10
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↓ (1.35)	8.89 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli Basket
89.4%

Pistoia Basket
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.9%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.5%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+21.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Napoli Basket's performance.

Pistoia Basket has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pistoia Basket might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli Basket than the current prediction. (-18.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Napoli Basket that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pistoia Basket than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pistoia Basket could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Napoli Basket - Pistoia Basket Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 93:77

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Green E.	0. Benetti G.
4. Pangos K.	10. Cooke Jr. D.
35. Tote L.	2. Della Rosa G.
8. Woldetensae T.	11. Forrest M.
1. Zubcic T.	14. Novori A.
Substitutes
5. De Nicolao G.	12. Boglio A.
15. Egbunu J.	4. Ceron M.
44. Mabor Dut Biar A.	6. Jacopo C.
0. Pullen J.	5. Paschall E.
11. Saccoccia S.	15. Saccaggi L.
3. Treier K.
Coaches
. Valli G.	. Okorn G.

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Napoli Basket won 2.

Recent matches Napoli Basket is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Pistoia is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Napoli Basket is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Napoli Basket won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 732:670 (average 81.3:74.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Napoli Basket won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 344:307 (average 86:76.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Napoli Basket
Italian Lega A Basketball
09.02.25	Venezia - Napoli Basket	91:68 ✺
02.02.25	Napoli Basket - Basket Brescia	90:85 ✺
25.01.25	Treviso Basket - Napoli Basket	78:90 ✺
19.01.25	Napoli Basket - Dinamo Sassari	87:70 ✺
12.01.25	Virtus Bologna - Napoli Basket	86:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 LWWWL
- Pistoia Basket 2000
Italian Lega A Basketball
08.02.25	Pistoia Basket - Scafati	89:91 ✺
02.02.25	Pistoia Basket - Treviso Basket	84:90 ✺
25.01.25	Trapani - Pistoia Basket	104:60 ✺
19.01.25	Pistoia Basket - Varese	111:96 ✺
12.01.25	Trieste - Pistoia Basket	80:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
29.09.24	Pistoia Basket - Napoli Basket	88:82
16.03.24	Napoli Basket - Pistoia Basket	93:95 OT
02.12.23	Pistoia Basket - Napoli Basket	81:76
Club Friendly Basketball
09.09.23	Pistoia Basket - Napoli Basket	69:80
Italian Serie A2 Basketball
28.05.21	Pistoia Basket - Napoli Basket	74:85
25.05.21	Napoli Basket - Pistoia Basket	80:70
23.05.21	Napoli Basket - Pistoia Basket	92:78

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