Match Info

EuroBasket - Round 5

Date: 4 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Spodek (Katowice)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Sporza, Sporza, VRT Canvas
Croatia	SportKlub
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 4
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Extra 1, TVP Sport
Serbia	Sportklub
Spain	DAZN Espana
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Court Side 1891


	Poland		Belgium

	1	2
	1.14	6	Watch
	1.14	5.75	Watch
	1.15	5.75	Watch
	1.19	5
	1.18	4.50	Watch
	1.14	6.37	Watch
	1.38	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.19 ↓ (1.38)	5.18 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 155.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-12)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poland
81.3%

Belgium
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Poland's performance.

Belgium has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Belgium might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poland than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Poland that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belgium than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Belgium could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Poland - Belgium Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Poland will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Belgium will win (votes: 15 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Belgium: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Poland (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Belgium (votes: 9 - 69.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 163.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 165 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +5.5, OT - Belgium (3.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -12, OT - Poland (1.93) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Poland (votes: 5 - 31.3%). Belgium (votes: 11 - 68.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 84:72

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Lineups


2. Balcerowski A. Unicaja	19. Bako I. Unics Kazan
11. Dziewa A. King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	44. Guisse M. Limoges
12. Gielo T. Bilbao	4. Lecomte E. Start Lublin
15. Laczynski K. Anwil Wloclawek	29. Ledegen S. Okapi Aalst
8. Loyd J. AS Monaco	36. Mennes J. Oostende
23. Michalak M. Anwil Wloclawek	8. Mwema J. (C) Alicante
17. Olejniczak D. Saint Quentin	11. Schwartz L. Saint Quentin
0. Pluta A. SK Legia Warszawa	41. Tshimanga G. Circus Brussels
9. Ponitka M. (C) Bahcesehir Koleji	16. Tumba K. Antwerp Giants
3. Sokolowski M. Sassari	34. Van den Eynde N. Okapi Aalst
10. Zapala S.	24. Van Vliet A. Gravelines-Dunkerque
28. Zolnierewicz P. King Wilki Morskie Szczecin	10. Vanwijn H. Merkezefendi
Coaches
. Milicic I.	. Gjergja D.

Preview

Poland is Qualified for EuroBasket (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Recent performances by Poland have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Belgium is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Poland may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Poland is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Poland won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 280:235. (average 56:47).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poland basketball
EuroBasket
02.09.25	France - Poland	83:76 ✺
31.08.25	Poland - Iceland	84:75 ✺
30.08.25	Poland - Israel	66:64 ✺
28.08.25	Slovenia - Poland	95:105 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
21.08.25	Finland - Poland	106:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWWL
- Belgium basketball
EuroBasket
02.09.25	Belgium - Israel	89:92 ✺
31.08.25	Slovenia - Belgium	86:69 ✺
30.08.25	Iceland - Belgium	64:71 ✺
28.08.25	Belgium - France	64:92 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
17.08.25	Belgium - Bosnia and Herzegovina	60:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
24.08.16	Poland - Belgium	55:58
29.08.15	Poland - Belgium	72:52
European Basketball Tour
18.08.13	Belgium - Poland	52:66
EuroBasket
30.08.12	Belgium - Poland	73:87
15.08.12	Poland - Belgium	N/A

Poland - Belgium: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide