Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 7

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday


	Progresso		Siena

	1	X	2
	6.40	4.12	1.44	Watch
	6.59	3.88	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.5 ↑ (3.39)	4 ↑ (3.48)	1.44 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progresso
14%

Draw
22.7%

Siena
63.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

25.9%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.1%

25.4%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Progresso's form might have worsened.

Siena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Siena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progresso than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Progresso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Siena than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Siena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 16th in the Serie D - Group E (Play Out: ) and 8th).

Recent results have been tough for Progresso (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Siena has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Progresso could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, Siena enters as the overwhelming favorite.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Siena	6	3	1	2	13:8	5	10
16	SCD Progresso	6	1	0	5	4:15	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
04.10.26	Rondinella Marzocco - Progresso	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Montevarchi - Progresso	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Progresso - Seravezza Pozzi	0:3 ✺
16.09.26	Lucchese - Progresso	5:0 ✺
12.09.26	Progresso - Scandicci	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLLW
- Siena FC
Coppa Italia Serie D
07.10.26	Flaminia Civita Castellana - Siena	0:3 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group E
04.10.26	Siena - Seravezza Pozzi	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Lucchese - Siena	3:2 ✺
20.09.26	Siena - Montevarchi	3:0 ✺
16.09.26	Tau Altopascio - Siena	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWLWL

Progresso - Siena: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide