Match Info

Serie D - Group E - Round 3

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Porta Elisa (Lucca)


	Lucchese		Progresso

	1	X	2
	1.52	3.75	5.25
	1.45	3.95	5.7
	1.44	4.45	5.39
	1.45	4.39	5.64	Watch
	1.4	4.4	5.3
	1.55	3.88	5.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.95)	4.14 ↑ (3.2)	5.54 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lucchese
61.7%

Draw
21.9%

Progresso
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

28.6%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucchese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lucchese's performance.

Progresso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Progresso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Lucchese - Progresso Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Lorusso D. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Lorusso D. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
53', 3 - 0, Dionisi F. ⚽,
55', 🟥,
57', 4 - 0, Sirbu D. (Penalty Awarded),
88', 5 - 0, Lombardi L. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, Lucchese is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lucchese	6	4	1	1	16:11	5	13
16	SCD Progresso	6	1	0	5	4:15	-11	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Lucchese Libertas 1905
Italian Serie D - Group E
12.09.26	Seravezza Pozzi - Lucchese	5:0 ✺
06.09.26	Lucchese - Montevarchi	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group A
17.05.25	Lucchese - Sestri Levante	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Sestri Levante - Lucchese	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
27.04.25	Lucchese - Sassari Torres	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWWLW
- SCD Progresso Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
12.09.26	Progresso - Scandicci	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Tau Altopascio - Progresso	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie D - Group D
03.05.26	Progresso - Sasso Marconi	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Lentigione - Progresso	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Progresso - Correggese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 WLWWT

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