Match Info

Euroleague - Round 8

Date: 30 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Movistar Arena (Madrid)

Referee: Petek S. (Slo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3, Oneplay Sport 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Israel	5 PLUS Israel
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Spain	Movistar Plus+
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
World	EuroLeague TV


	Real Madrid		Fenerbahçe

	1	2
	1.56	2.5	Watch
	1.52	2.6
	1.52	2.64	Watch
	1.47	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.43)	2.62 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 166.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
63.3%

Fenerbahçe
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Real Madrid - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Real Madrid will win (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real Madrid: 43.5% – 83.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 170.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.5, OT - Real Madrid (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Real Madrid will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Real Madrid (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Fenerbahçe (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
6. Abalde A.	00. Bacot A.
7. Campazzo F.	2. Baldwin W.
14. Deck G.	13. Biberovic T.
0. Lyles T.	18. Jantunen M.
22. Tavares E.	3. Wilbekin S.
Substitutes
24. Feliz A.	92. Birch K.
16. Garuba U.	1. Birsen J.
11. Hezonja M.	17. Bitim O.
1. Kramer D.	50. Colson B.
23. Llull S.	20. Hall D.
12. Maledon T.	8. Horton-Tucker T.
9. Procida G.	4. Melli N.
Coaches
. Scariolo S.	. Jasikevicius S.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 1.

Real Madrid has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fenerbahçe is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Real Madrid may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Real Madrid is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 1614:1522. (average 80.7:76.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 814:774. (average 81.4:77.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 65.38%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid basketball
Euroleague
28.10.25	Bayern München - Real Madrid	90:84 ✺
Spanish ACB League
26.10.25	Real Madrid - Basquet Manresa	87:75 ✺
Euroleague
22.10.25	Maccabi Tel Aviv - Real Madrid	92:91 ✺
Spanish ACB League
19.10.25	Real Madrid - San Pablo Burgos	90:80 ✺
Euroleague
17.10.25	Crvena Zvezda - Real Madrid	90:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LWLWL
- Fenerbahçe Basketball
Euroleague
28.10.25	Valencia - Fenerbahçe	92:79 ✺
Turkish Basketball Super Ligi
26.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Türk Telekom BK	92:84 ✺
Euroleague
24.10.25	Anadolu Efes Pilsen - Fenerbahçe	69:79 ✺
Turkish Basketball Super Ligi
19.10.25	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	76:85 ✺
Euroleague
16.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Bayern München	88:73 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
06.02.25	Fenerbahçe - Real Madrid	78:67
05.12.24	Real Madrid - Fenerbahçe	70:82
07.03.24	Real Madrid - Fenerbahçe	79:89
30.11.23	Fenerbahçe - Real Madrid	100:99 OT
29.03.23	Real Madrid - Fenerbahçe	90:75
02.12.22	Fenerbahçe - Real Madrid	71:85
08.02.22	Fenerbahçe - Real Madrid	66:51

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