Match Info

World Cup - Qualification - First round - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Frontwave Arena (Oceanside, CA)


	USA		Mexico

	1	2
	1.22	3.9
	1.23	3.9
	1.25	3.48
	1.26	3.68	Watch
	1.25	3.5
	1.26	3.68
	1.07	7.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↑ (1.07)	4.18 ↓ (7.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 174.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

USA
77.4%

Mexico
22.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

86.9%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

USA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that USA's form might have worsened.

Mexico has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mexico's recent form is better than expected.

USA - Mexico Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +5.5, OT - Mexico (2.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5, 1st Half - Mexico (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Mexico (3.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Mexico (3.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1Q - Mexico (2.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1Q - Mexico (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Mexico (2.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mexico (3.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Mexico (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
11. Knight B. Capitanes de Arecibo	31. Avila J. Astros de Jalisco
5. Mathias D. Brisbane Bullets	9. Cruz P.
14. Robinson J. Dallas Mavericks	10. Giron G. Toros Laguna
9. Roddy D. Toronto Raptors	3. Jaimes F. Soles
13. Wiseman J. Indiana Pacers	4. Stoll P. Astros de Jalisco
Substitutes
15. Hill M. Philadelphia 76ers	14. Alvarez V. Astros de Jalisco
10. Jones T. Saskatoon Mamba	44. Amigo D. Astros de Jalisco
6. Kinsey T. Golden State Warriors	7. Andriassi M. Astros de Jalisco
4. Payton E. New Orleans Pelicans	2. Bonilla G.
7. Shackelford J. Osos de Manati	15. Camacho J. Halcones de Xalapa
12. Taylor T. Brisbane Bullets	25. Gutierrez J. Astros de Jalisco
8. Tilmon J.	0. Rodriguez K. Astros de Jalisco
Coaches
. Silas S.	. Quintero O.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, USA won 3.

In this match, USA is the obvious favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, USA won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 681:586. (average 85.1:73.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USA basketball
World Championship Basketball
26.02.26	USA - Dominican Republic	79:87 ✺
01.12.25	USA - Nicaragua	123:93 ✺
28.11.25	Nicaragua - USA	67:102 ✺
AmeriCup Basketball
31.08.25	Canada - USA	85:90 ✺
30.08.25	Brazil - USA	92:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWWWL
- Mexico basketball
World Championship Basketball
26.02.26	Nicaragua - Mexico	72:99 ✺
01.12.25	Dominican Republic - Mexico	88:89 ✺
28.11.25	Mexico - Dominican Republic	85:92 ✺
AmeriCup Basketball
24.02.25	Mexico - Canada	98:94 ✺
21.02.25	Mexico - Nicaragua	107:57 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AmeriCup Basketball
02.09.22	Mexico - USA	73:67
World Championship Basketball
27.02.22	USA - Mexico	89:67
29.11.21	Mexico - USA	97:88
AmeriCup Basketball
20.02.21	Mexico - USA	75:96
30.11.20	USA - Mexico	94:78
World Championship Basketball
28.06.18	Mexico - USA	78:70
26.11.17	USA - Mexico	91:55

USA - Mexico: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide