Match Info

County Championship One

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday

Location: County Cricket Ground (Chelmsford)


	Essex		Surrey

	1	2
	1.9	1.9
	2.02	1.83
	2.15	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.29)	1.79 ↑ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Essex
47%

Surrey
53%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.7%

58.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Essex has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Essex's performance.

Surrey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Surrey might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Essex than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Surrey than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Essex won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Essex won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 5342:4563. (average 267.1:228.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Essex won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 3297:2547. (average 329.7:254.7).

Standings

		Pts	W	L	D	N/R		Pts
7	Surrey	14	2	4	8	0	7215:7938	152
8	Essex	14	4	7	3	0	6200:6299	136

Last Results with these Odds

Essex - the odds 2.29 are the expected chance of winning is 41.66%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Surrey - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 58.34%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Essex Eagles
County Championship One Cricket
20.08.26	Somerset - Essex	572:570 ✺
Royal London One-Day Cup
11.08.26	Essex - Yorkshire	151:155 ✺
07.08.26	Glamorgan - Essex	309:312 ✺
02.08.26	Essex - Worcestershire	376:269 ✺
31.07.26	Essex - Hampshire	317:321 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWL
- Surrey County Cricket Club
County Championship One Cricket
20.08.26	Surrey - Nottinghamshire	345:490 ✺
Royal London One-Day Cup
11.08.26	Surrey - Nottinghamshire	298:299 ✺
07.08.26	Somerset - Surrey	368:180 ✺
05.08.26	Surrey - Kent	286:191 ✺
31.07.26	Gloucestershire - Surrey	292:311 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Vitality Blast
12.07.26	Surrey - Essex	123:124
01.07.26	Essex - Surrey	233:240
County Championship One Cricket
24.04.26	Surrey - Essex	Match drawn.
Royal London One-Day Cup
15.08.25	Essex - Surrey	417:173
Vitality Blast
06.07.25	Surrey - Essex	141:145
County Championship One Cricket
23.05.25	Surrey - Essex	279:217
04.04.25	Essex - Surrey	582:365

Essex - Surrey: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide