Match Info

European Tour 3 - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: WT Energiesysteme Arena (Riesa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Hungary	Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Viaplay


	Josh Rock		Nathan Aspinall

	1	2
	1.8	2
	1.76	1.88
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.72	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.78)	1.91 ↓ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Josh Rock
52%

Nathan Aspinall
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Josh Rock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Nathan Aspinall has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Josh Rock than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nathan Aspinall than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Josh Rock - Nathan Aspinall Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Rock is ranked World Ranking: 13. Aspinall is ranked World Ranking: 8.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Aspinall could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both players are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Rock won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 20:15 (average 6.7:5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Josh Rock
Darts
06.04.25	Andrew Gilding - Josh Rock	4:6 ✺
05.04.25	Josh Rock - Gian Van Veen	6:4 ✺
22.03.25	Josh Rock - Gian Van Veen	4:6 ✺
12.03.25	Josh Rock - Haupai Puha	3:6 ✺
07.03.25	Josh Rock - Boris Krcmar	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLLL
- Nathan Aspinall
Darts
06.04.25	Gerwyn Price - Nathan Aspinall	5:6 ✺
05.04.25	Nathan Aspinall - Joe Cullen	6:1 ✺
03.04.25	Nathan Aspinall - Stephen Bunting	2:6 ✺
27.03.25	Luke Humphries - Nathan Aspinall	6:5 ✺
27.03.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Nathan Aspinall	5:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
02.03.25	Josh Rock - Nathan Aspinall	10:7
27.12.22	Nathan Aspinall - Josh Rock	3:4 best of 5 sets
27.10.22	Nathan Aspinall - Josh Rock	5:6 best of 11 legs

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