Match Info

Premier League - Night 14 - Quarter-finals

Date: 7 May 2026, Thursday

Location: First Direct Arena (Leeds)


	Luke Littler		Michael Van Gerwen

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.31	3.35
	1.31	3.26
	1.33	3.3
	1.3	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.32)	3.33 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luke Littler
71.7%

Michael Van Gerwen
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.8%

38.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luke Littler has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luke Littler than the current prediction. (-9.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Luke Littler that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (+9.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Van Gerwen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:3

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Preview

Littler is ranked World Ranking: 1. Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Littler won 2.

Littler is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Van Gerwen's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Littler may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Littler is a strong favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Littler won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 79:60. (average 5.3:4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luke Littler
Darts
30.04.26	Luke Littler - Gerwyn Price	6:1 ✺
30.04.26	Josh Rock - Luke Littler	3:6 ✺
23.04.26	Luke Humphries - Luke Littler	2:6 ✺
16.04.26	Luke Littler - Gerwyn Price	6:3 ✺
09.04.26	Luke Littler - Stephen Bunting	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWL
- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
30.04.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3 ✺
23.04.26	Josh Rock - Michael Van Gerwen	3:6 ✺
19.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Wessel Nijman	2:6 ✺
19.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Jermaine Wattimena	6:2 ✺
18.04.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Michael Unterbuchner	6:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
19.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	Littler L.
24.04.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	6:5
06.03.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	2:6
13.02.25	Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen	6:2
06.02.25	Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen	5:6
25.01.25	Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen	6:3
03.01.25	Luke Littler - Michael Van Gerwen	7:3

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