Match Info

Premier League - Night 5 - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Utilita Arena Cardiff (Cardiff)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Luke Humphries

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.54	1.5
	2.65	1.47
	2.42	1.47
	2.6	1.5
	2.47	1.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.49)	1.49 ↓ (1.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
36.8%

Luke Humphries
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

56.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Luke Humphries has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Michael Van Gerwen, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luke Humphries than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luke Humphries, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Humphries will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:6

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4. Humphries is ranked World Ranking: 2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 2.

Van Gerwen is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Humphries's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Humphries may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Humphries will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Humphries will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 136:152. (average 6.8:7.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Luke Humphries - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 61.88%, but this team recently wins 83% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
26.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Gerwyn Price	5:6 ✺
19.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Littler	Littler L. ✺
12.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Josh Rock	6:2 ✺
10.02.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Charlie Manby	6:3 ✺
05.02.26	Stephen Bunting - Michael Van Gerwen	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 L?WWW
- Luke Humphries
Darts
26.02.26	Stephen Bunting - Luke Humphries	6:4 ✺
22.02.26	Luke Humphries - Stephen Bunting	6:1 ✺
22.02.26	Luke Humphries - Boris Krcmar	6:1 ✺
21.02.26	Luke Humphries - Krzysztof Ratajski	6:5 ✺
19.02.26	Gian Van Veen - Luke Humphries	6:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Darts
14.09.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	5:10
08.05.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries	4:6
24.04.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:4
20.03.25	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	4:6
06.02.25	Michael Van Gerwen - Luke Humphries	5:6
15.09.24	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	9:10
21.07.24	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	18:15

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