Match Info

European Tour 7 - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: WT Energiesysteme Arena (Riesa)


	Michael Van Gerwen		Ross Smith

	1	2
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.62	2.26
	1.64	2.17	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.64	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.64)	2.24 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 9.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Van Gerwen
57.9%

Ross Smith
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Van Gerwen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Ross Smith has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Michael Van Gerwen than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Michael Van Gerwen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ross Smith than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ross Smith could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Michael Van Gerwen - Ross Smith Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 6:4

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Preview

Van Gerwen is ranked World Ranking: 4. Smith is ranked World Ranking: 15.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 3.

Recent performances by Van Gerwen have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Smith is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Smith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Van Gerwen will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Van Gerwen won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 46:35. (average 5.1:3.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Van Gerwen
Darts
24.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Damon Heta	6:3 ✺
23.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Madars Razma	6:5 ✺
21.05.26	Luke Humphries - Michael Van Gerwen	6:5 ✺
14.05.26	Gerwyn Price - Michael Van Gerwen	6:4 ✺
10.05.26	Michael Van Gerwen - Robert Cross	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WWLLL
- Ross Smith
Darts
24.05.26	Ricardo Pietreczko - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
23.05.26	Ross Smith - Joe Cullen	6:3 ✺
10.05.26	Ross Smith - Martin Schindler	2:6 ✺
09.05.26	Ross Smith - Niels Zonneveld	6:3 ✺
19.04.26	Nathan Aspinall - Ross Smith	4:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Darts
22.09.24	Ross Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	3:7
28.04.24	Ross Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	6:1
21.04.24	Ross Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	7:6
25.11.23	Ross Smith - Michael Van Gerwen	1:6
23.09.23	Michael Van Gerwen - Ross Smith	6:4
15.11.22	Michael Van Gerwen - Ross Smith	4:5 best of 9 legs
12.11.19	Michael Van Gerwen - Ross Smith	5:2 best of 9 legs

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