Match Info

Liga Nacional - Round 29

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	Castell de Peñiscola		Ribera Navarra

	1	X	2
	1.26	5.75	5.25
	1.25	7.2	6.6
	1.31	6.31	5.68	Watch
	1.23	6.95	6.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.32)	6.55 ↑ (6.1)	6.12 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castell de Peñiscola
71.5%

Draw
13.8%

Ribera Navarra
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

14.9%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

15.5%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castell de Peñiscola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Ribera Navarra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castell de Peñiscola than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ribera Navarra than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Castell de Peñiscola - Ribera Navarra Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Peñiscola will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 5:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Perez G. (G)	1. Lopez P. (G)
16. Araya B.	99. Fabinho
18. Elias	6. Joao Batista
19. Munoz P.	23. Perez E.
23. Quintela D.	14. Terry
Substitutes
7. Ferreira M.	3. El Ayyane A.
6. Flores L.	2. Garcia D.
12. Gonzalez G. (G)	12. Gustavao
9. Juanqui	15. Jimenez R. (G)
14. Perez V.	21. Otero P.
5. Plaza A.	10. Sepe
11. Saladie C.	8. Tumkiewicz N.
20. Sancho D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 2)
3', Plaza A. (G),
13', Elias (G),
15', Gustavao 🟨,
16', Joao Batista (G),
16', Araya B. (G),
17', Rosental N. (G),
19', Perez E. (G),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
25', 🟨,
28', Elias (G),
37', 🟨,
39', Saladie C. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 3.

Peñiscola has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ribera Navarra is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ribera Navarra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Peñiscola is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Peñiscola won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 61:58. (average 3.2:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Peñiscola won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 37:22. (average 4.1:2.4).

Standings

Apertura

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
13	Peniscola	5	1	1	3	15:20	4

Last Results with these Odds

Ribera Navarra - the odds 5.75 are the expected chance of winning is 15.83%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castell de Peñiscola
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
02.05.26	Barcelona Alusport - Castell de Peñiscola	5:5 ✺
29.04.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Inter	4:3 ✺
25.04.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Cartagena	4:2 ✺
19.04.26	O Parrulo - Castell de Peñiscola	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Castell de Peñiscola - Valdepeñas	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 37.6 TWWLL
- Ribera Navarra FS
Spanish Primera Division Futsal
01.05.26	Xota - Ribera Navarra	4:1 ✺
28.04.26	Ribera Navarra - Palma Futsal	3:7 ✺
25.04.26	Barcelona Alusport - Ribera Navarra	8:4 ✺
19.04.26	Ribera Navarra - ElPozo Murcia	3:3 ✺
05.04.26	Manzanares - Ribera Navarra	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera Division Futsal
07.12.25	Ribera Navarra - Castell de Peñiscola	3:3
24.05.25	Ribera Navarra - Castell de Peñiscola	3:4
07.12.24	Castell de Peñiscola - Ribera Navarra	9:1
23.12.23	Ribera Navarra - Castell de Peñiscola	4:2
02.09.23	Castell de Peñiscola - Ribera Navarra	8:2
06.02.21	Ribera Navarra - Castell de Peñiscola	6:1
10.10.20	Castell de Peñiscola - Ribera Navarra	4:2

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