Match Info

HMNL - Round 10

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Torcida Split		Novo Vrijeme Makarska

	1	X	2
	1.84	4.7	3
	1.81	5.49	2.83	Watch
	1.84	4.55	2.98
	1.78	5	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.81)	4.94 ↓ (5.49)	2.92 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Torcida Split
50.2%

Draw
18.5%

Novo Vrijeme Makarska
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

16.7%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

15.3%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Torcida Split has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Novo Vrijeme Makarska has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Torcida Split than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Torcida Split, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novo Vrijeme Makarska than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Torcida Split - Novo Vrijeme Makarska Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:4

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Torcida won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Torcida might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Torcida won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:25. (average 2.9:3.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Torcida won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1.7:3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Novo Vrijeme	3	1	0	2	12:17	3
10	Torcida	3	0	0	3	2:17	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MNK Torcida Split
Croatian 1 HMNL
27.12.25	Olmissum - Torcida Split	3:3 ✺
12.12.25	Torcida Split - Square Dubrovnik	5:2 ✺
28.11.25	Osijek - Torcida Split	3:1 ✺
21.11.25	Torcida Split - Rijeka	3:6 ✺
15.11.25	Crnica - Torcida Split	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TWLLW
- Novo Vrijeme Makarska
Croatian 1 HMNL
26.12.25	Square Dubrovnik - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	3:1 ✺
12.12.25	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Rijeka	3:3 ✺
30.11.25	Pula - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	3:3 ✺
23.11.25	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Vrgorac	5:2 ✺
15.11.25	Olmissum - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian 1 HMNL
04.10.25	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Torcida Split	4:4
10.01.25	Torcida Split - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	4:1
20.10.24	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Torcida Split	6:3
09.03.24	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Torcida Split	0:6
24.11.23	Torcida Split - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	0:5
03.02.23	Novo Vrijeme Makarska - Torcida Split	6:2
22.10.22	Torcida Split - Novo Vrijeme Makarska	1:3

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