Match Info

European League - Play Offs - Final

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Barclays Arena (Hamburg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 2
Finland	Viaplay
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
Norway	Viaplay
Romania	Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport 3
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium


	THW Kiel		MT Melsungen

	1	X	2
	1.5	8	3.1	Watch
	1.44	11	3.4
	1.51	9.4	3.05
	1.49	7.74	3.35	Watch
	1.5	8.5	3
	1.5	9.4	3.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.45)	9.01 ↑ (8.5)	3.19 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

THW Kiel
61.2%

Draw
10.1%

MT Melsungen
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

10.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

10.4%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

THW Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

MT Melsungen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for THW Kiel than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for MT Melsungen than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

THW Kiel - MT Melsungen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:28

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Lineups


48. Abdelhak M.	21. Arnarsson A.
22. Ankermann R.	6. Balenciaga E.
53. Bilyk N.	71. Darmoul M.
23. Dahmke R.	18. Drosten F.
4. Duvnjak D.	25. Forsell-Schefvert O.
91. Imre B.	11. Ignatow D.
21. Johansson E.	73. Kastening T.
7. Landin M.	10. Kristopans D.
20. Laube L.	7. Mandic D.
93. Nacinovic V.	2. Marchan R.
11. Overby P.	33. Mensing A.
61. Pekeler H.	32. Palasics K.
1. Perez de Vargas G.	16. Simic N.
6. Reinkind H.	8. Sipos A.
33. Wolff A.	23. Soler M.
24. Zerbe L.	19. Stefansson R.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kiel won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Melsungen may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kiel is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kiel won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 585:509. (average 29.3:25.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Kiel won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 368:307. (average 30.7:25.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- THW Kiel
EHF European League
30.05.26	Montpellier HB - THW Kiel	28:29 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
24.05.26	Bergischer - THW Kiel	23:32 ✺
10.05.26	THW Kiel - Füchse Berlin	28:35 ✺
EHF European League
05.05.26	THW Kiel - Nexe	34:29 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
02.05.26	HSG Wetzlar - THW Kiel	33:25 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WWLWL
- MT Melsungen
EHF European League
30.05.26	MT Melsungen - Flensburg-Handewitt	37:30 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
21.05.26	SC DHfK Leipzig - MT Melsungen	27:33 ✺
09.05.26	MT Melsungen - Eisenach	37:34 ✺
EHF European League
05.05.26	Porto - MT Melsungen	23:19 ✺
German Bundesliga Handball
01.05.26	Rhein-Neckar Löwen - MT Melsungen	30:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga Handball
27.03.26	MT Melsungen - THW Kiel	30:29
18.10.25	THW Kiel - MT Melsungen	31:29
EHF European League
25.05.25	THW Kiel - MT Melsungen	37:31
German DHB Pokal
13.04.25	THW Kiel - MT Melsungen	28:23
German Bundesliga Handball
29.03.25	MT Melsungen - THW Kiel	27:22
EHF European League
04.03.25	THW Kiel - MT Melsungen	35:24
11.02.25	MT Melsungen - THW Kiel	26:26

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